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2023 wildfires an exception to three decades of declining fires

As millions of Canadians and Americans have been exposed to the smoke from Canadian forest fires already this year, along with a steady stream of media coverage, they would be forgiven for coming to a similar conclusion as Prime Minister Trudeau, who recently tweeted “We’re seeing more and more of these fires because of climate change.”

But as Dr. Ross McKitrick, professor of environmental economics at the University of Guelph, explained in the Financial Post, Trudeau’s statement is wrong twice over.

Pointing to publicly-available data from the Wildland Fire Information System, McKitrick said that wildfires have in fact been getting less frequent in Canada over the past 30 years.

“The annual number of fires grew from 1959 to 1990, peaking in 1989 at just over 12,000 that year, and has been trending down since. From 2017 to 2021 (the most recent interval available), there were about 5,500 fires per year, half the average from 1987 to 1991.”

The same is true for the amount of area burned, which also peaked 30 years ago at 7.6 million hectares, far above the current average of 2.4 million. McKitrick also pointed to global data which shows a similar decline in wildfires in recent decades.

One reason why fires are getting so much attention this year is because 5.29 million hectares have already burned in 2023, and we are still relatively early in the season.

Another reason why fires are getting more attention is because they seem to be getting more dangerous, spreading quickly and threatening entire towns. Is it due to global warming? McKitrick offers another explanation, quoting from forestry experts Stefan Doerr and Cristina Santin:

“ aggressive fire suppression policies over much of the 20th century have removed fire from ecosystems where it has been a fundamental part of the landscape rejuvenation cycle…. We cannot completely remove fire from the landscape…That is the misconception that led to the ‘100 per cent fire suppression’ policies in the U.S. and elsewhere that have made things worse in many cases.”

In the past government agencies, and even private land owners, have used “prescribed burns” – deliberately lit and managed fires – to burn away undergrowth. When done with some regularity these are lower temperature fires, clearing the ground but without burning the trees down. 100 per cent fire suppression policies do away with these burns, and as McKitrick explained, “this has led to a buildup of fuel in the form of woody debris leading to the risk of more explosive and unstoppable fires.”

God has entrusted us with stewardship of His creation (Genesis 1:28) and part of stewardship requires an accurate understanding of this creation, including the importance of fires for healthy forests.

Picture is of fires near Hope, BC earlier this year (edb3_16 / iStockphoto.com).