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Stats Canada: birth rate now at just 1.26 children per woman

Statistics Canada is reporting that the country’s birth rate has dropped to among the lowest in the world, at just 1.26 children per woman, and British Columbia leads the downward trend with a birth rate of just 1 child per woman.

To put these numbers in context, for a country’s population to remain stable – neither growing nor shrinking – each woman needs to have, on average, 2 children – one to replace her, and one to replace her spouse. The real number is even a smidge higher at 2.1, to account for children that don’t make it to adulthood. But outside of Nunavut, at 2.48 children, no province or territory is even at replacement level. Saskatchewan is next best, at 1.63 children.

So how might this impact Canada’s population over the coming decades?

For simplicity’s sake, we’ll drill into this using a sample population of just 100, with 50 men and 50 women. If each of these women averages 1.26 children, then in one generation we’re down to a population of 63. Let’s round that up to 64, or 32 men and 32 women. If those 32 women then average 1.26 children each, we’re down to a population of just 40. In just two generations we’ve seen the population drop by 60%.

Applied to Canada’s current population of 40 million, that would see us drop all the way down to 16 million in two generations.

So why is Canada’s population still growing, and growing fast? We’re up by more than a million over just the last few years! This is due to an influx of immigrants – more than a million over the last few years. The growth isn’t coming internally.

Massive immigration is one short-term means of forestalling population collapse, but it isn’t a long-term answer, because birth rates are falling all over the world. And if the population decreases everywhere, there won’t be immigrants knocking on our door.

What’s the solution? Everyone seems to be looking to the government, but to this point, no program in any country has done much to slow the decline. The case could be made that the government isn’t the answer, but it is part of the problem – every childcare program meant to make having children easier needs to be paid for with higher taxes, and higher taxes make it that much harder to get by for one-income families where a mom wants to stay at home.

So what is the answer? Our culture needs to turn to God, not government. Do we sometimes find that a hard message to share? Well, thankfully, God is making it easier for us, by “platforming” us via the size of our families. It used to be you'd need to have 6 children or more to stand out, but now just 4 will give you an opportunity to let your light shine as people ask why so many? We can glorify our God, and help our country, just by speaking to the blessings He has given us in our children.

This chart is adapted from Stats Canada’s “Fertility indicators, provinces and territories: Interactive dashboard” posted to StatsCan.gc.ca on Sept. 25, 2024. Used with permission. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.