Should government try to boost fertility?

In his article, “We are not taking Canada’s fertility crisis seriously enough,” economist Tim Sargent highlights that a society with fewer couples and children will have more loneliness and depression, and will struggle to afford pensions and healthcare.

His solution? For governments to create incentives that make it easier to have and care for children. This could include making housing more affordable, offering financial incentives through the tax system, helping with childcare costs and reducing education requirements so young people can enter the workforce earlier.

The trouble is, there’s very little evidence that government incentives can increase the birth rate. According to The Economist, since 2006 South Korea has been spending just over 1% of their GDP a year on incentives such as tax breaks for parents, maternity care and state-sponsored dating. And yet they continue to have the lowest birth rate in the world. Hungary has also put a lot of effort into increasing its birth rate, with some success, but they have not yet succeeded in raising the number of births to a “replacement rate” of 2.1 births per woman. The best a government policy seems to be able to do is to slow down the population decline.

And this makes sense – birth rates tend to be higher not in richer countries with more incentives but in poorer countries with low GDP. Money alone is unlikely to be the solution. While people instinctively feel a lack of money is a major factor, other areas of life (that government has less control over) play a significant role in the low birth rate as well – like the fraying social fabric which puts people at odds with each other, the lack of community support that makes potential parents feel insecure, and the pressure to establish a career before a family. Other challenges include the struggle singles who want children experience in finding a like-minded partner to settle down with, the pervasive cultural messages that raising children is stressful and burdensome, and the looming sense of despair that a large number of young people feel about their future. These are not simple challenges for a government policy to address!

In contrast, the Church may be able to play a more effective role in providing social support, encouragement, and hope in the face of despair to potential young parents.